The End Of Orban

Hungary may free itself.

Romania caught a Russian plant, nullified the election, re-ran it, and got a legitimate president.

Poland is about to make a decision and given their history with Russia I hope they too make the right choice.

And if the Hungarians, who are protesting weekly, finally kick Orban to the curb?

A unified Europe standing up will take some of the sting out of the U.S. imperial implosion.

The United States, marvelously isolated as we are, is a naval power. This infographic gives a sense of the situation and things haven’t changed all that much since I published Global Aircraft Carrier Infographic twelve years ago.

The United States has ten active Nimitz class carriers and one active Gerald R. Ford class. These are the 1,100’ long ships with jets. We have seven active Wasp class LHAs (landing helicopter assault) and two of the newer, and arguably less capable America class LHAs. These carry dozens of helicopters, maybe some A/V-8B jump jets, and the Wasps can carry landing craft in their well deck. We’re kinda screwed due to Fat Amy - the nickname fighter pilots have bestowed on the Lockheed F-35, but the F/A-18 Super Hornet line is still running, so things aren’t utterly hopeless.

The rest of the world combined has about as many carriers as the U.S. Most of the others are in the hands of NATO allies - France(1), Italy(2), UK(2), Spain has two planned.

The big changes are in the western Pacific. China has two active carriers, a third undergoing sea trials right now, and a fourth building that will be their first nuclear powered ship. Japan has two small ships, a quarter the size of U.S. carriers, and also two of what they call helicopter destroyers, which are one fifth the size of U.S. carriers. While relatively small, the Japanese ships are regarded as quite capable.

The other thing to note is that two French built Mistral class ships, originally meant for Russia, ended up in the hands of Egypt instead, due to the 2014 invasion of Ukraine.

The one Russian aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, is more of a punch line than a fighting ship. When it leaves port it is always accompanied by a large ocean going tug and it periodically stalls, or catches fire, and has to be dragged home.

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The United States is undergoing an imperial implosion and the global trade world order that kept us safe and prosperous since World War II will not survive the summer. If a combination of the NATO countries other than the U.S. (seven carriers) and Japan (four carriers) decide to try to maintain the freedom of the seas, they will need to hustle.

The carriers are the biggest pieces on the playing field, but using them as a direct proxy for capability is ignoring the other surface combatants. The United States has 83 active guided missile destroyers and cruisers. The U.K. has just six, France has a muddle of ships but perhaps six is the right number. Italy has just three destroyers, but over a dozen heavy frigates.

Japan has just eight guided missile ships, but there are twenty eight older destroyers that are similar in size and capability to the Italian heavy frigates.

But you can’t just smoosh half a dozen smaller operations together and call it good. For example, the U.S. has a swarm of Military Sealift Command ships that carry ammo, food, and fuel for the combatants. We maintain facilities all over the world. There are many things that would need to happen before the combined Asian and European powers could fill America’s boots.