The Day After AI
This bubble WILL deflate.
Do you have a plan for the day when your $100/month Claude plan only gets you $100 of service? When I’m busy and focused I estimate that my usage would cost around $8,000 per month on an API usage plan.
The discount is not as insane as it sounds, what is Anthropic doing here?
Training the people who will be hired by big companies.
Seeding startups that may take off and drive demand.
Grabbing as much of the consumer space as they can.
But the circular dealing of the AI players was the first warning sign, and now with the economic hit due to the Hormuz closure, it’s clear something is going to happen. SOON.
If my access disappears in August, I will start manually reviewing the roughly 60,000 lines of code in the Minowa backend. I will take stock on how many competitors will simply implode without the subsidized access. And I will be looking to see what sort of inference is available for consumers, probably with a focus on Apple hardware.
We speak of bubbles “popping”, but that’s not quite right. Bubbles deflate, perhaps with an initial dramatic run on the stocks of the frontier labs, but there will be a contest to consolidate, to be the last one standing, and to keep at least some of that datacenter investment active. Nothing will be stable, but those who are nimble will find a way to surf the decline, instead of experiencing a discontinuity.