Russia Fleeing Syria

Massive columns of ground troops head for Tartus.

There has been a lot of uncertainty in reporting from Syria, but Suchomimus comes through ahead of the western news with some videos from the Kurds. Russians ground troops are retreating en masse to the port of Tartus. I think the treaty that governs the Bosphorus strait means that these guys are going on ships that will have to sail to St. Petersburg or Murmansk in order to offload.

If Tartus is truly going away that means Russia is done in the Mediterranean, at least until their invasion of Ukraine ends.

The United States tried reloading VLS tubes at sea, but gave up on it. I’m fairly sure Russia’s famously dated logistics capabilities do not include reloads at sea. If they wanted to act out in some way they’d need to bring everything with them. They’d be running the gauntlet of a universally hostile Baltic(NATO), the Strait of Gibraltar, and the whole length of the Spanish(NATO), French(NATO), Italian(NATO), Greek(NATO), and Turkey(NATO) coasts before they get anywhere near Syria.

And even if they get there, they get one round of missile strikes and then nowhere to reload. Assuming this carries all the way through to the logical end, they’ll be losing Khmeimim air base as well. That dramatically complicates any operations they want to undertake in Africa.

If Europe can manage to stand with Ukraine against Russia aggressions, both the Baltic and the Black Sea will be deadly gauntlets and they’ll be logistically excluded from causing trouble in the Mediterranean. That’s a small consolation prize when compared to the Ukrainian blood that’s been paid, but over the long haul Europe will be in a much better position.