We have known something was coming in September and the intel converged on a date of the 17th - 19th within the last 48 hours. Source for this is Ukraine-ish, has NOT been echoed by any NATO contacts. My Signal rooms snap assessment on tonight’s event is that it’s an “accident” meant to test NATO readiness. You should learn where the Suwałki Gap is located.
CONTEXT: U.S. informed Europe of cuts to military aid, Lithuania says
The U.S. Department of Defense informed European countries last week that military support under a program known as Section 333 will be cut to zero from the next fiscal year, a Lithuanian defence ministry official said on Friday.
The affected countries are Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - which would be isolated from the rest of NATO if Russia crosses the Suwałki Gap to reach Kaliningrad.
CONTEXT: NATO’s eastern flank braces for Russia’s war games
Western observers will use Zapad 2025 to gauge the readiness of the Russian military three years after it attacked Ukraine.
This is Zapad 2025, a regularly scheduled exercise.
WIRE SERVICE:
The following text comes from a Reuters newsroom alert system in Singapore between 2030 and 2100 Pacific time.
POLISH DEFENSE MINISTER: TERRITORIAL DEFENCE FORCES HAVE BEEN ACTIVATED FOR GROUND SEARCHES OF DOWN DRONES
POLISH DEFENCE MINISTER: WE ARE IN CONSTANT CONTACT WITH NATO COMMAND
POLISH DEFENCE MINISTER: AIRCRAFT HAVE DEPLOYED WEAPONS AGAINST HOSTILE OBJECTS
POLAND'S TERRITORIAL ARMY SAYS IT HAS INTRODUCED SHORTENED TIME FOR REPORTING FOR DUTY FOR SOLDIERS DUE TO AIRSPACE VIOLATIONS
POLISH ARMY: AS A RESULT OF ATTACK BY RUSSIA ON UKRAINIAN TERRITORY, THERE WAS AN UNPRECEDENTED VIOLATION OF POLISH AIRSPACE BY DRONE-TYPE OBJECTS
POLISH ARMY: THIS IS AN ACT OF AGGRESSION THAT POSED A REAL THREAT TO THE SAFETY OF OUR CITIZENS.
POLISH ARMY: POLISH AND ALLIED ASSETS RADAR-TRACKED SEVERAL OBJECTS
POLISH ARMY: SOME OF THE DRONES THAT ENTERED OUR AIRSPACE WERE SHOT DOWN
POLISH ARMY: EFFORTS ARE UNDERWAY TO SEARCH FOR AND LOCATE THE POSSIBLE CRASH SITES OF THESE OBJECTS
International News:
BBC: Poland says it shot down Russian drones after airspace violation
Bloomberg: Poland scrambles jets, shuts Warsaw airport over Russian drones.
CHATTER:
Unattributed observations from various Signal rooms. Timestamps are Pacific
Thuner1 is a Polish a Saab 340 AEW&C that serves same role as the larger U.S. AWACS. They flew the wider drone hunting loops, then settled into laps at a safe distance from the border.
A well regarded Ukrainian source shared this map in a public setting.
Conclusion:
Some activity was to be expected given the Zapad 2025 exercise. The flow of alerts from Poland is NOT NOT NOT normal, it set my Signal rooms afire this evening.
This looks like Cold War brinkmanship coming back to life.
I’ve only done 8,500 steps today, still recovering from flu/COVID19 vaccinations. I am going to go put in some trail time, see if I pick up any more fighters passing.