Kessler Syndrome

Losing Space Access

We are at risk from Kessler Syndrome, the loss of long term access to space due to a cascade of collisions. This was dramatized in Gravity, which crammed a thousand years of degradation into a ninety one minute thrill ride. Reality proceeds at a much more sedate pace., not the tornado of chaos seen in Gravity, more like the nearly imperceptible but relentless way the winds of Mars move sand.

This video is a sensible exposition on the problem. Since people will ask, Starlink satellites are relatively small, very numerous, but really low in orbit. That both reduces latency when talking to ground stations, and it reduces their dwell time in orbit. That use of space is self limiting, while an explosion aboard a geostationary satellite risks every system that depends on remaining 22,300 miles from Earth’s surface in more or less the same geographic position on a continuous basis.

There are a variety of schemes for removing debris, from tethers that add drag to problematic equipment, to lasers that zap debris from above. The pulse are small, a little material comes off at high speed, inducing the unwanted satellite to move lower and slower, eventually burning up on reentry.

Like so many other things, I don’t have a good feeling here. Even a tiny bit of conflict that spills over the Kármán line, in particular if it’s in geostationary space, and it’s game over. Stuff a thousand kilometers up is going to take a thousand years, still just over 35,000 kilometers? That’s a permanent disendowment.