China is running an enormous snap exercise around Taiwan, extending to naval units near Japan and South Korea. Lots of “Russian exercises near Ukraine in early 2022” vibe to this, it’s their largest exercise since the end of the Cold War.
Tony reports that there have been several high profile hits on geopolitical YouTube channels, primarily those covering China and Russia. He provides a list of locations other than YouTube in the event his channel gets jacked.
The world’s top concern is the loss of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, our most skilled chip maker. They’ve made an effort to shift portions of their operation to Japan and the United States. There is a LONG logistic tail, there are many specialty companies based in Taiwan that would need to be recreated before the supply of high end chips would resume. Both Asianometry and Peter Zeihan have covered various aspects of this in depth.
Keep in mind that Russia is losing in Georgia, Moldova, Romania, Syria, Ukraine, and that if they can’t maintain their foothold on the Syrian coast that drastically complicates any Wagner activity in Africa. If Trump goads China into precipitous action a lot of things will come undone very quickly. I’m not going to engage in voluminous speculation as to what those things would be, but you should turn your attention to the network and flows of goods/money, then imagine it begin epically snarled.