Cat Herding

The last couple days have been a departure from writing. The particulars of what happened don’t belong in public, but the methodology employed is right in line with the purpose of this site.

Inception:

Our species evolved in hunter gatherer bands on open savanna terrain in the African tropics. We like to see open areas, some trees, and a source of water. The idyllic landscape painting with these features transcends cultures. A band is an extended family unit of a few dozen, a clan is a “band of bands”, and tribes are bound by geography, language, and religion.

The internet in general and social media in particular have no respect for these deeply ingrained norms. We get dumped into a a global digital plain with everybody else who has an internet connection. Then we start forming social structures that are of a manageable size for our wetware.

Deception:

Social movements arise in response to broadly perceived social problems. As such their very nature is conflict. They get attacked. They get infiltrated. They form up, then a cycle of fusion and fission of groups runs on until the energy is spent. Perhaps the problem is solved, more likely something more pressing takes its place.

Some infighting is normal, but there are many, many people who’ve read the documents from the Snowden leak associated with JTRIG. Our tax dollars are employed to ensure that we have little say in vital decisions.

There have been social movement activities related to the January 6th Capitol Siege and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The onset of prosecution closing in on Trump, combined with the imminent soggy fall weather in Ukraine, make this a time of group fission. People are tired, they sense that things are shifting, so they pull back.

And when the tide goes out you find out who was swimming naked. Less picturesquely, the various scams people run against social movements, deprived of the cover of the mass movement, begin to break down.

Contrition:

Having been at this a while, there are some things I do that limit the potential for trouble, and I tend to recognize problematic patterns quickly. There are times where I get to share my experience with others before there are troubles, which may or may not stick. There are times I get involved in debriefing folks after the fact. And it may sound cold and cruel, but if people are caught up in something and unwilling to listen, the only sensible thing to do is to walk away quietly.

As a rule, introspection is hard work. I don’t know anyone who enjoys realizing they ain’t all that, and if finances or romances are part of the shock, look out.

The last several days I’ve had a Maltego graph open on one side of my big display, a spreadsheet on the other, and chats going on my wing monitor. Who did what, when they did it, and then speculation about why are part of the process. It’s possible to deceive A person at a moment in time, trying to deceive a whole group over a period of months is another matter entirely.

There are some who will just stay stuck in Kahneman’s System 1 - that instinctive, emotional space where they’re subject to reflexive control. The cold, hard analytical types with graphs and timelines can pull some of them out of the fray.

And we come to the point where the economist will say “the loss has already occurred”. There are delusions regarding the chance for some sort of recovery, the urge for vengeance, and of course there will be plenty of time for blamestorming.

Conclusion:

It is a fine thing to see a social movement form in response to a problem that one has long perceived. They surf a wave of enthusiasm and idealism with their eyes on the prize. The first time participants are oblivious to the hazards that await them.

When some things go badly, which is inevitable, being the undertaker is a thankless task. The reward comes from being able to quickly move on to spending more time on productive things.