Boeing's Dreamliner Nightmare

This is just not gonna have a happy ending, I can tell already.

A month ago I wrote Losing Boeing, when the public troubles were largely confined to just the newer narrow body 737 designs. Let’s take a look at what’s happening now with their flagship wide body 787.

Kick fitting a couple key components that should mesh flawlessly can get a plane out the door and into the air without being noticed for years. There are 1,100 in service world wide but the oldest are just thirteen years, which is half to a third of the expected life of such a plane. But hidden stress like that, combined with thousands of “cycles”, the industry term for a takeoff and landing, can lead to … surprises.

This event seems to be overloaded pilots, but the ship exceeded its structural design limits. Things like this do happen … and it will be awful if this is how we learn precisely which key components have spent years under tension outside their design parameters.

Two 787s among the first ever built were scrapped last year. Nothing is wasted; planes get taken to bits, inspected, and parts are stored until needed elsewhere. It’s a shame we didn’t know about the problems when this was happening, complete disassembly is the perfect time to dig into complex stress related issues. The parts are still around, it’s the in situ exam that would have been the real prize.

Conclusion:

We ca not lose Boeing.

We may lose Boeing.

Boeing can not rebrand out of this.

Boeing can not bankrupt out of this.

Boeing can not merge with Airbus, because FTC.

Boeing can not merge with Comac, because just no.

Boeing can not be parted out, because no plausible purchasers.

The usual corporate remedies do not apply in this case. The market and the mission are going to demand change. This is where things are gonna get hinky … how will a Congress, full of Republicans who are snorting free market fairy dust in the cloak room before hearings, respond to market conditions affecting a key defense contractors … for which any solution will include the prescription for more and better union participation?

Well, I’m not wrong on this, am I? Better check your popcorn supply, it’s gonna be a LONG year.