Arsenal of Autocracy

Expanding my analytical followings.

I’ve mentioned three sources of analysis on YouTube that I like. Those are:

Peter Zeihan - for the implications of demographics on all the other things.

China Update - one stop shop for what’s going on with China.

Asianometry - all sorts of stuff, but deep on electronics manufacturing.

I was talking with Paul at Truth About Threats the other day and he was dismissive of Zeihan from a national security perspective. I do not disagree with this - PZ fills some gaps in my knowledge, but he’s failed to factor in domestic political conditions, and I do see security things that are … he presumes too much in the way of rational, mechanistic calculus. And that is only somewhat applicable most all the time.

So I have been widening horizons and I haven’t found just one person that does what I need. I’m starting to suspect that’s never going to materialize; it’s much more likely that there will be a matrix of aggregators, like Atlantic Council, and topics, in this case Russia and North Korea’s role(s) in global arms propagation.

The thing that Zeihan has got right that none of these think tanks have is the ending of globalization. If you think that’s not the case, here’s a map of every country Britain never invaded.

And this is the pitiful condition of their military today. They were the U.S. predecessor in terms of global navigation and today they’re three years away from having a working AWACS and they couldn’t field a mechanized infantry division if they needed to do so.

Conclusion:

The only thing keeping Russia in one piece is their alliance with the disloyal Christian Nationalist faction of the U.S. Republican party. We have six more agonizing months before November’s Civil War Referendum. Assuming we maintain democracy we’re going to see a Christian Nationalist insurgency … and the natural supply lines for that will be … the Central American cartels … with their fentanyl precursors originating in China. Allah sanctifies whom he pleases, eh?

Get ready for a Tilt-a-Whirl ride of spin on this, as the Republicans try to make Russia good/China+Iran bad fit into their end of days delusions.