Anders Puck Nielsen: Ukraine Status

Donetsk is not good, but overall Ukraine is winning

We see the news of the day on Ukraine and for most people it’s an emotional reaction:

“Ukraine advances in Kursk!” YAY

“Ukraine loses an F-16!” THE END IS NIGH

I like APN because he 1) covers the whole theater 2) including history of how current conditions arose and 3) sensible prognostication on what could happen next.

My take: Ukraine has initiative in Kursk, but they are slowing, as Russian resources arrive. They will take the land south of the Sejm, but not just yet. On the day when they a whole bunch of positive press their forces are going to rapidly pincer from east and west.

Russia is advancing in Donetsk, but they do not have initiative. They have committed to a course of flooding the path to Pokrovsk with cannon meat attacks. After each wave the Ukrainians examine the results and decide if they’re going to stand where they are, or if they can do more damage by backing up to the next line of prepared defenses.

The Ukrainians have taken a nice sized, DEFENSIBLE slice of Kursk. The Russians are pouring everything they’ve got into a thin salient at a time when their logistics are getting hammered. When the weather gets nasty that area will be a shooting gallery for everything from 105mm howitzers to Storm Shadow. Go take a look on Deep State Map and play with the weapon ranges from the center of that salient, or from Pokrovsk. The Russians are just close enough to Pokrovsk that they may be facing short range 105mm artillery from well prepared urban positions.